If the domestic political fortunes of the Chancellor and the Conservative Party are far from certain, then this week’s debacle on European policy offers no consolation. Currently the Tories are a weak government and keeping their voters’ faith that they can deliver Brexit is crucial to keeping its head above water. 

Consequently, the fifteen Conservative MPs identified by the Daily Telegraph as ‘mutineers’ pose a genuine threat to the Government, whose effective majority of thirteen is fully dependent on successful whipping and the support of the entire DUP. Without these fifteen MPs, the Government would be unable to function. The Maastricht Rebels under John Major’s second term found outsized influence in a government with a razor-thin majority. Major’s response to this constant rebellion was to withdraw the Whip. As embattled as Theresa May is, this is unfeasible, as she is unable to lose even seven Mutineers and retain a working majority. 

The Government response to the Mutineers will be telling. Even after the first attempt to formally write the date of Brexit into law has begun to be walked back by the Government, Downing Street is now promising to ‘listen to the views’ of its critics. If May wants conciliation, then these fifteen MPs may well moderate Brexit. But then of course the much larger contingent of Tory MPs supporting a ‘hard Brexit’ may erupt into revolt, re-opening the issue. Sometimes it seems the only thing keeping May as PM is that it is a job no one could possibly want…