Seat In The Spotlight: Uxbridge & South Ruislip

December 3, 2019 | by Field Team

In our General Election special series, the Field team are shining a spotlight on the local nuances and dramas of key seats

This week we are turning our attention to none other than the Prime Minister’s seat: Uxbridge and South Ruislip. This seat has been held by the Tories since its creation in 2010, and by Boris Johnson’s since 2015, but it is by no means a safe seat. Prior to the election, there was speculation that Johnson would opt to stand in a safe seat rather than Uxbridge and South Ruislip, a seat theConservatives marked as “at risk”. He decided to risk it however, and recently the opposition have been making enough noise to make the Conservatives a little nervous.

Most notably, 25-year old Labour candidate Ali Milani has been campaigning hard in the constituency, and many are commenting that he could be a surprise threat to the Prime Minister. Milani has pitched himself to voters as the antithesis of everything Johnson stands for, including Brexit, which the constituency voted for with a leave vote of 57.19%. However, Boris only has a majority of 5,000, which is about half of the winning margin in 2015. According to the Independent, Milani was given an opening quote of 5-1 with Paddy Power but this has now boosted to 7-2, and is apparently one of the five biggest movers in the constituency markets.

Although a recent YouGov poll has found that the Conservatives are likely to win a comfortable majority, the poll ranked Uxbridge and South Ruislip as “likely Conservative” which is below “safe” and only a rank above “lean”. TheConservatives are clearly beginning to feel the nerves. So much so that there are rumours of a backup plan which includes asking a Conservative MP with a significant majority near London to step up to the Lords on a promise of high office, and a by-election would be triggered within days of the General Election.

No incumbent Prime Minister has ever lost their seat at a general election, could this be the election of many firsts?

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